2026 Interest Rate Forecast
A clear guide for homeowners, buyers, and anyone watching Canada’s interest‑rate landscape.
The Bank of Canada’s policy rate announcements shape everything from mortgage payments to bond markets to overall economic confidence. With eight scheduled announcements each year, these dates act as anchor points for financial markets—and for Canadians planning renewals, refinances, or new purchases.
Below is a breakdown of the 2026 Bank of Canada announcement schedule, plus rate forecasts from major Canadian banks to help you understand where experts think rates are headed.
2026 Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Schedule
2026 Announcement Date
Wednesday, January 28
Wednesday, March 18
Wednesday, April 29
Wednesday, June 10
Wednesday, July 15
Wednesday, September 2
Wednesday, October 28
Wednesday, December 9
The Bank of Canada publishes its rate announcement calendar well in advance. For 2026, the scheduled dates are:
All announcements occur at 9:45 a.m. ET.
Why These Dates Matter
Each announcement influences:
- Variable mortgage rates (which move with prime rate)
- Bond yields, which drive fixed mortgage rates
- Housing market activity, especially around spring and fall
- Consumer and business confidence
Announcements that coincide with the release of the Monetary Policy Report (January, April, July, October) tend to be the most impactful, as they include the Bank’s full economic outlook.
2026 Interest Rate Forecast
What major Canadian financial institutions expect
As of early 2026, the Bank of Canada’s policy rate sits at 2.25%. After a period of easing in 2024–2025, the Bank has signaled that the current rate is “about right” for maintaining inflation near its 2% target.
Here’s what major banks and economic forecasters are projecting for 2026:
RBC Economics
- Expects the BoC to hold rates at 2.25% through most of 2026.
- Sees the next rate increases beginning in 2027, potentially rising toward 3.25%.
Scotiabank
- Predicts the BoC will hold through early 2026, then raise rates in the second half of the year.
- Forecasts up to 50 bps of tightening by late 2026.
TD Economics
- Expects the policy rate to remain unchanged through the end of 2027.
- TD sees no hikes in 2026, reflecting a cautious, stability‑focused outlook.
CIBC & BMO
- Both expect the BoC to hold steady at 2.25% throughout 2026.
- Neither has published projections beyond 2026, but both emphasize a stable, not falling, rate environment.
National Bank
- Similar to Scotiabank, National Bank expects modest rate increases late in 2026 as inflation stabilizes and growth strengthens.
What This Means for Borrowers in 2026
1. Variable‑Rate Borrowers
- Relief from earlier rate cuts has already been realized.
- Most experts expect little movement in variable rates through 2026.
- Payments should remain stable, barring late‑year hikes.
2. Fixed‑Rate Borrowers
- Fixed rates may face upward pressure as markets price in future tightening.
- Bond yields could rise if inflation remains sticky or global conditions shift.
3. Renewals
- Roughly 1.15 million Canadians are renewing in 2026 (CMHC).
- Those coming off ultra‑low pandemic‑era fixed rates will see significant payment increases.
4. New Buyers
- A stable rate environment may help restore confidence.
- Housing forecasts suggest modest price growth, not a surge, in most markets.
Final Thoughts
2026 is shaping up to be a year of rate stability, with the Bank of Canada holding steady while watching inflation, employment, and global economic conditions. The big question isn’t when rates will fall—it’s when they might rise again.
For homeowners and buyers, the key is timing:
- Renew early if you’re concerned about late‑year hikes.
- Explore refinancing if you want to consolidate debt or access equity before fixed rates climb.
- Stay informed—these eight announcement dates will guide the market all year long.
Book at time to chat with me about your mortgage options today.
