With the next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement scheduled for October 28, 2026, many Ontario home buyers, homeowners, and mortgage shoppers are wondering whether another rate hike is still on the table. Recent employment data may provide an important clue. [bankofcanada.ca]
After two consecutive months of job losses and a rising unemployment rate, expectations for a near-term increase in interest rates have softened. While inflation remains a concern, the latest labour market numbers suggest Canada’s economy may be cooling, potentially reducing pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise rates further. [www150.statcan.gc.ca], [economics.td.com]
Upcoming Bank of Canada Rate Announcement
📅 Date: October 28, 2026
🕘 Time: 9:45 a.m. ET
📊 Includes the release of the latest Monetary Policy Report containing updated economic and inflation forecasts.
For anyone considering a home purchase, refinance, or mortgage renewal, this announcement could provide important insight into where rates may be headed in the months ahead.
What Did the Latest Jobs Report Show?
According to Statistics Canada, Canada lost approximately 68,000 jobs in September, marking the second consecutive month of employment declines. The national unemployment rate increased to 6.5%, while Ontario’s unemployment rate rose to 7.0%. [www150.statcan.gc.ca], [cbc.ca]
Several key highlights stood out:
- Canada lost approximately 68,000 jobs in September.
- The unemployment rate increased from 6.4% to 6.5%.
- Ontario lost approximately 20,000 jobs during the month.
- Employment declined particularly in education, health care, and manufacturing.
- Job losses followed another decline of 42,000 positions in August.
The results were significantly weaker than economists had expected and suggest that higher borrowing costs, trade uncertainty, and slower economic growth may be weighing on employer hiring plans.
Why the Bank of Canada Cares About Employment
The Bank of Canada closely monitors employment because it provides valuable insight into the overall health of the economy.
When job growth is strong, wages often rise and consumer spending increases. This can contribute to inflationary pressures and may encourage the Bank to consider higher interest rates.
Conversely, when employment weakens and unemployment rises, inflation pressures may begin to ease. This can reduce the urgency for further rate increases and strengthen the case for maintaining current rates.
The latest report suggests previous rate increases may already be having a moderating effect on economic activity.
What Could Happen on October 28?
Before the September employment report was released, some economists believed there was still a meaningful possibility of another rate hike before year-end.
However, following the weaker labour market data, expectations for an October increase have declined. Economists at TD Economics noted that the report is likely to reduce expectations for a near-term hike and support a more cautious, data-dependent approach from the Bank of Canada.
While no one can predict the Bank’s decision with certainty, the latest employment numbers have strengthened the argument for a rate hold on October 28.
What This Means for Mortgage Rates
Variable-Rate Mortgages
Variable-rate mortgages are directly influenced by changes to the Bank of Canada’s overnight lending rate.
If the Bank leaves rates unchanged:
- Variable mortgage rates would likely remain stable.
- Borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages would avoid additional payment increases.
- Home buyers would benefit from greater certainty when budgeting for a purchase.
Current 5-year variable mortgage rates are generally available between 3.40% and 4.15%, depending on the lender and borrower profile.
Fixed-Rate Mortgages
Fixed mortgage rates are influenced primarily by Canadian bond yields rather than the Bank of Canada’s policy rate.
Current 5-year fixed mortgage rates generally range from 4.50% to 5.20%, depending on lender pricing and the borrower’s qualifications.
Although a Bank of Canada rate hold does not guarantee lower fixed rates, slowing economic growth and weaker employment data can contribute to lower bond yields, which may help keep fixed mortgage rates relatively stable.
What Does This Mean for Home Buyers?
For prospective buyers, recent economic developments may provide some welcome relief.
If rates remain unchanged:
- Mortgage qualification becomes more predictable.
- Borrowers face less pressure from rising payments.
- Home buying affordability may improve relative to previous years.
- Variable-rate mortgages may continue to offer an attractive discount compared to fixed-rate options.
That said, the best mortgage isn’t always the one with the lowest rate. Payment stability, flexibility, penalties, and long-term financial goals should all be considered.
Compare Today’s Mortgage Rates With Your Own Numbers
A lower interest rate doesn’t always mean the best mortgage for your situation. The right choice depends on your payment comfort level, financial goals, and how long you plan to keep your mortgage.
Use my free Canadian Mortgage Calculator Suite to see how today’s mortgage rates could affect your home purchase.
What Does This Mean for Current Homeowners?
Homeowners approaching renewal should be paying close attention to the October 28 announcement.
Even if rates remain unchanged, the broader message from the Bank of Canada regarding inflation and economic growth could influence future mortgage pricing.
Depending on your situation, now may be a good time to:
- Review your mortgage strategy.
- Explore early renewal options.
- Compare fixed and variable alternatives.
- Evaluate refinancing opportunities.
A proactive approach can often save thousands of dollars over the life of a mortgage.
Final Thoughts
Canada’s latest jobs report paints a picture of a labour market that is beginning to soften. With employment declining for a second consecutive month and unemployment moving higher, many economists believe the chances of an October rate hike have diminished.
While the next Bank of Canada announcement on October 28, 2026 remains highly anticipated, the recent employment data suggests the central bank may have room to remain on hold while it assesses inflation and economic growth trends.
Whether you’re buying your first home, renewing your mortgage, or considering a refinance, understanding how economic news affects mortgage rates can help you make more informed decisions.
Need Mortgage Advice?
Every borrower’s situation is different.
Whether you’re purchasing, renewing, refinancing, or deciding between fixed and variable rates, I can help you evaluate your options and compare offers from multiple lenders.
